Lebanon: Definitely not Ukraine

Ukraine was just so easy in comparison.

There was a dictator… there was an election. The dictator defrauded the election… the people opposed him, got another election, and the good guys won. The longer this situation in Lebanon draws out the more complicated and convoluted it seems to be getting.


First we had, of course, the assassination of Hariri and the subsequent demonstrations against Syria and resignation of the Pro-Syrian, Lebanese government.

Then there were massive counter-protests organized by Hezbollah and other Pro-Syrian factions expressing their support for the Syrian troops and the Syrian President… all the while waving Lebanese flags.

And today, as if in a bout of one-upmanship, the Opposition forces in Lebanon have countered with an even more massive (we’re talking 1 million people!) protest in Beirut. Publiuspundit has an excellent roundup of todays events. (Cheers: LT-Smash)

Aside: Don’t you love how, when people are demonstrating for “freedom” or “democracy” or some other keyword of the right-wing crew suddenly the projections by the AP and other news agencies are trusted and referenced, yet when there is an “anti-war” protest in London or Madrid the numbers are suddenly derided as overblown and exagerrated because of the evil Left MSM? Guess what people… 1+1=2 no matter what the event!

Anyway, in the midst of all these protests and counter-protests and generally encouraging signs of national unity in Lebanon, the Syrians have pledged to pull their troops out of the country. The bunkers and installations are already being emptied… and President Bush seems almost giddy that his Master Plan is working.

However, Syria Comment says now that the Syrians have agreed to pull out their military… everything changes, “the game is up”

Now that the Syrians have agreed to withdraw their troops, UN Resolution 1559 is dead.”

The resolution demanding the disarming of Lebanese parties cannot be carried out. France and Russia have opposed it. Hizbullah demonstrated that it is much too strong.

In the American embassy in Damascus, the view is that the game is finished. Now everyone is trying to understand who won.

So who won? Well, for now it seems the Lebanese people are winning, on both sides as they are celebrating and exercising their right to express and protest. However, it seems that we may only know the answer to the larger question of the US, France, UN and Syria once the elections are held in May. Even then who are we to know whether we will fully understand the implications of all that has gone on in Lebanon over the past few months. Historians will be the only ones truly capable of grasping the entire situation.

It is in Lebanon’s hands now. The national debate has begun in earnest and it is exciting. Hizbullah made its statement in Riad al-Sulh square. “We are here. We are not just in the South.” Unlike the Sunnis of Iraq, who didn’t vote, the Shiites will vote. They want a place in society and won’t repeat the mistake of the Iraqi Sunnis. They have been emboldened by the Iraqi example, where the Shiites have come to power, to get into the political arena and demand their share.

The Lebanese opposition is listening, too. It is very refreshing and will have a monster effect on Syria. If the Lebanese can work out at happy balance, Syrians will take heart. Minority fears keep Syria’s dictatorship in place. Once they ease, things will begin to change rapidly.

For some reason, I felt a lot more comfortable with the Ukrainian style of revolution…

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