Election Predictions

It has to be done.. so I might as well get it over with on the first official day of the Campaign right?

Here are some predictions, prognostications and downright speculation for the election on January 23rd 2006.

One interesting facet of this election, looks like there will be 2 English debates, and one French. At least this is what I heard on the CBC last night, though it seemed not to be a sure thing.

#1: A Conservative MP will runoff at the mouth at a campaign stop in Ontario, after New Years. Much hay will be made in the media.

#2: (Assuming there are 3 debates as I said above) Jack Layton will be non-existent in two debates but be determined the winner in another.

#3: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe will run an inept campaign, and will actually lose seats to the Liberals in Quebec.

#4: Stephen Harper will get pied… at least once.

#5: Paul Martin will get booed… everywhere.

#6: Paul Martin will win the French language debate.

#7: At least 2 out of 4 candidates will be caught on tape slipping on snow/ice/slush while “stumping”.

#8: All the leaders will be in BC more than in any other election in the history of Canada.

#9: The Liberals will be swept off The Rock (Newfoundland… they’ll keep Labrador)

#10: The Liberals will be swept off The Other Rock (PEI)

Final Seat Count:

Liberals: 130

Conservatives: 105

Bloc: 50

NDP: 21

4 replies on “Election Predictions”

  1. You’re being rather pessimistic about your own Party.

    I’ve already predicted elsewhere on another prediction site in commentary that I fully expect to see the NDP having anywhere from 35-45 seats. I base that on a prediction that they will make seat gains mostly at the expense of the Cons. in BC and possibly Saskatchewan.. and they have a chance to gain seats in Hamilton and the Liberal stronghold of Toronto.

    As for Newfoundland and PEI .. I have my doubts that either of those will come true.. PEI has been a Liberal stronghold forever… and as I recall.. there are 2 Tory MP’s in Newfoundland who were in hot water from Danny Williams and the populace in general for following the Party line trying to defeat the Government in May rather then voting for it – thus keeping the Atlantic Accord going.

    Just because it passed anyways doesnt mean those folks dont have long memories.

  2. Hey Scott.

    Well, for one I wouldn’t really call the NDP “my Party”. I just happen to be voting for them.

    That said, I’m a realist. I don’t see the NDP making huge gains. The political climate of the left is much different than it was a decade ago when they one the most seats in their history.

    Unless there is an utter collapse of Liberal suppprt, which I don’t anticipate, I just can’t see the NDP making huge gains.

    As for my predictions about The Rocks. Well, those were somewhat whimsical. Though for Newfoundland, I actually do think the Conservatives stand a chance of taking a couple seats away from the Libs, as do the Conservatives.

    In all though.. predictions really don’t mean much. Who knows, maybe I just pulled those numbers out of thin air.

    Oh.. wait, did I say that?

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