This is how wars start… Iran and the US

Last November, the UK government accused Iran of supplying Iraqi insurgents with advanced bomb making materials originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Yesterday, March 7, the United States, through Donald Rumsfeld, accused Iran of “infiltrating Iraq” with para-military forces to stir up trouble, mainly in the South.

Asked whether the alleged insertion of Iranian forces into Iraq was backed by the central government in Tehran, Mr Rumsfeld said: “Of course, the Qods force does not go milling around willy-nilly, one would think.”

Today, in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Iranian diplomats said Iran could “cause harm and pain” to the US just as easily as the US could to it.

The United States may have the power to cause harm and pain but it is also susceptible to harm and pain.

“So if the United States wishes to choose that path, let the ball roll.”

Both Iran and the US need to be very careful here. Iran is clearly trying to bare it’s teeth… but it’s likely to bite off much more than it can chew, even with the US so totally overextended in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet at the same time, the US must be careful, another war, even just airstrikes, could seriously disrupt oil *flow* temporarily; and oil prices for a very extended period of time. The choice of words of “harm and pain” are very appropriate… as conflict between the two countries would likely be at a relatively low level, most of the damage would be economic and social, on both sides, rather than military.

2 replies on “This is how wars start… Iran and the US”

  1. To judge from the rhetoric on each side, the danger of an American war with Iran looks very high, and I can’t see it as less than a disaster for both if it happens. The trouble is that I can’t get a sense of when a conflict might break out. Any thoughts?

  2. I think it’s very hard to judge when or if conflict will break out.

    It seems like the rhetoric just gets more and more heated. We can’t even use Iraq as an example. The Iranian leadership is completely different… the Iranian people are completely different. Iran actually *has* a known program, but to my knowledge, aside from Iraq, Iran has never aggressively attacked a nation.

    My feeling is that Iran will not be the one to act first because they know that they would get far more support from their citizens, and from the International community, if they were hit first… no matter what they did in response.

    There is a lot of talk about the end of this month as being a possible time for an attack to happen. That’s what the conspiracies say anyway. 😉

    Personally… who the heck knows… it seems that, with Iraq in the state it is… the powerkeg is there. Just waiting for the match.

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