Gomery Report: Will the Government fall?

I doubt it.

For a number of reasons…

#1: The Conservative Party has not the balls to bring down the government. They *could* do it… without quesiton, but they’d have to make a deal with the Bloc and NDP in order to do it. They’re far too power hungry to do that.. they think they’d win a majority, which is, of course, practically impossible what with their current situation in Quebec (and Ontario).

#2: The Bloc can’t bring it down themselves… nor do they have to in order to remain popular in Quebec. They’re saying all the right things, and Quebeccers understand that the Bloc can’t bring down the government themselves.. so any blame can be associated with the Conservatives or NDP to do it.

#3: The Canadian electorate doesn’t want an election. Not at Christmas time. What’s more, this report largely exonerated the current crew in power… and with Martin paying back 1 million to the government coffers from the Liberal war chest… and sending the report to the RCMP, there isn’t much to stick to this government to blame that would override the lack of enthusiasm for an election and lack of enthusiasm for the alternative (Conservatives)

#4: The NDP holds the Ace. They *could* bring down the government… but they’d rather get their peice of the action while they can. They know that, within their constituents and supporters, they’re better off squeezing the Liberals for everything they can get while they are in the minority and vulnerable. If the Liberals, say No, then the NDP says.. OK, election time. Either way, the NDP wins.

I’ve also been tracking some international comment on the scandal. Unfortunately, most are simply copy/pasting the newswire story. But some have unique things to add and their perspective and tone are always interesting.

The main theme from most media outlets seems to be… Liberal party is corrupt, Chretien got the blame, Martin is exonerated, election possible, but not likely.


And if you’re looking for a great post on what the Gomery Report actually means to Canadians, I think Crawl Across the Ocean has put it best… if you give politicians of any stripe scissors, they will run with them.

9 replies on “Gomery Report: Will the Government fall?”

  1. I agree with Scott. The CPC and the Bloc could, if they really wanted, bring down the government at this point. Last time, it really was the independents that screwed them over, this time, I think they have the advantage (if they wanted it).

  2. Scott, you’re being deliberately misleading, for several reasons:

    1) You’re making assumptions re: the way the independents would vote.
    2) The Conservatives had the numbers last time – then Paul Martin got Belinda to switch sides. Even if the independents vote with the Conservatives, Paul Martin would simply use this tactic again. A one vote margin is simply not enough.

    Worse, I’m quite sure you KNOW that you’re being misleading.

  3. Scott, true, but I don’t think they’ll attempt it because they’re afraid of the Independants screwing it up again for them. That doesn’t really give them much of an excuse htough. If the “Cause” is good enough, then they should have the conviction to do it.

    Toronto Tory… why is Scott being misleading? He can’t make an assumption or prediction… you’ve never done the same?

    Your #2 sounds more like a capitulation than a defense. Is the Conservative Party so weak that they won’t run against the Liberals on their own platform and will instead be afraid that the Liberals will steal away their MPs?

    That’s not exactly a confident position…

  4. Come on Toronto Tory.. I expect better from you.

    My math figures add up correctly… and I base my prediction on the fact that I believe O’Brien and Kilgore will vote down the government on a vote of non-confidence over Gomery. .. I base that on their public statements in the past.

    I’ve seen another person say that he wouldnt be surprised if Parrish would also now vote against the government.. but I am less sure of that.. needless to say.. all the BQ and Tories need to do is keep 3 of the 4 independents.. and they have the election they crow loudly they want – but yet dont want to do unless Jack Layton and the NDP hold their hands. (actually.. I dont doubt the BQ wants an election.. they at least seem sincere about it.. Harper on the other hand.. didnt convince me).

  5. isn’t what’s-his-doodle who got “caught” trying to send tapes on an Air Canada flight still not back in Caucus? Or is that resolved now… if so.. that would of course affect the number of Independants needed…

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